The index of opposition unity (IOU) is a term that had almost lost its relevance in the era of Mandal and Kamandal politics. It reclaimed its lost status in the month of July with a successful Bharat bandh. A successful orchestration of a bandh sponsored by the united opposition has put paid to two notions on which the Congress government had based a quite a few bold decisions. One: The voter had become apathetic enough to let inflation decide his voting intentions; and two, the opposition had become too disoriented to mount a serious challenge to the Congress as nobody wanted an election. Being a part of larger united opposition is very important to the BJP as well, as it provides the party the initiative to take on a fast-reviving Congress in Uttar Pradesh. In the past, bandhs and floor coordination by a united Opposition have fostered many anti-Congress waves

The late VP Singh’s success in 1989 was as much the result of his anti-Bofors campaign as it was of a united opposition. The political lexicon was evolved further to describe a “very near, but still so far” relationship with the BJP, without whose support the uprooting of the Congress in northern India was not possible. At that point, the IOU was called ‘seat adjustment’. While the National Front was a combine by itself, it had an alliance with the Left, and seat adjustments with the BJP.

The quantum of seat adjustment was, however, very large, and in many cases it even made space for the Left. Perfect seat adjustments were achieved in Gujarat and Rajasthan, leaving the Congress with only three seats in Gujarat, and zilch in Rajasthan in 1989. In Rajasthan, the CPM was given one seat from the JD’s quota, which it managed to win. The CPI won Amravati in Maharashtra, where the BJP-Sena contested only 36 of the 48 seats, leaving the remaining 12 to other parties. In a nutshell, whether the term alliance was used or not, wherever necessary the opposition united to put the Congress on the mat.

In 1989 and 1977, greater opposition unity was possible because the core was essentially centrist and socialist, and the BJP was expected to fill up the fringes. This made alliances far easier. In today’s realm, the centrist core needs to reinvent itself. A growing BJP compelled the former socialists to fill up the fringe by providing a stable core itself. However, a declining BJP has lost the value proposition of being able to attract more allies, thus failing to create a single cohesive alternative to the Congress. It is the resolution of this challenge that will hold the key to the emergence of the next anti-Congress coalition.

Importantly, the presence of this weak centrist core also raises the spectre of the third front, or a loose congregation of non-Congress, non-BJP parties coming together. Even if the opposition manages to tie in the loose ends, the key challenge is whether it will succeed in transforming the current anxiety over inflation into a wave.

The opposition faces a challenge in converting the current anxiety over inflation into a coherent rallying point for the masses. An anti-incumbency wave is an interplay of many factors, the four principal ones being: an eyesore — a symbol that the masses identify with; a political personality that can be booked for accountability, often vilified; sufficient intervention by the media and a credible voice for the opposition. Most waves have seen at least three of these four factors in full play. In 1988, Rajiv Gandhi was the object of vilification; VP Singh, the voice of the opposition; Bofors, a symbol of corruption and some media houses did not let the issue die.

The current debate on inflation, and the issue of sleaze and mismanagement that potentially contributed to it, is not accompanied by an interplay of the above four factors. VP Singh in 1988 and GR Khairnar in 1994 represented an indefatigable spirit to take on the respective regimes then.Right now the force multipliers are missing. Round one has gone to the opposition nevertheless.

(Writer Jai Mrug is a psephologist with twelve years of experience in the field of electronic and print media, he has been an avid tracker of elections in India and has worked with leading Television houses in the country and has analysed elections for a number of leading newspapers in the country.)