The advent of non Congress parties in the 1990’s brought with them a whole host of regional leaders who attempted to change a paradigm of elections often governed only by anti-incumbency cycles and complex caste calculus. The southern states of India witnessed the rise of personality cults in 1980s with the advent of NTR in Andhra Pradesh and MGR in Tamilnadu. The northern states are seeing a qualitatively different type of politics that blends personality politics with development and caste calculus. The three N’s on the political arena of India – Narendra Modi, Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar have in different measures appropriated this formula.

The forth coming elections to the assembly of Bihar will attempt to reinforce this as the new paradigm of strategies in Indian electoral politics that challenge existing constructs and can often throw existing players to the peripheries of the boxing ring.

The results of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections to the Parliament of India have in several states reinforced the durability and the robustness of the mobilization of regional parties. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) stands out like the lode star pointing to the zeitgeist. The party along with its ally the BJP polled 38% of the votes and won 80% of the seats in the state. There are two primary reasons that may impact the performance of the alliance in the state of Bihar. One - it was a vote for the Prime Ministerial candidate of the alliance in the LS elections and not a vote for the Chief Ministerial candidate of the alliance. Second the opposition was seriously divided with the Congress making significant inroads into the non BJP JD(U) voters in the state.
The importance of the first point cannot be underestimated. The BJP has not performed as spectacularly in the Lok Sabha elections in Gujarat in 2004 and 2009. However the party has performed reasonably well in the assembly elections even without conspicuous communal polarization. The answer lies in the premium voters put on what they see as leadership and ability to deliver good governance. The performance of the JD(U) in Bihar must be seen in this light. A vote share of 38% in Bihar must therefore be seen as a conservative ball park for the ensuing assembly elections. The alliance may do even better.

The last Lok Sabha elections saw a badly battered opposition in Bihar leading to the BJP JD(U) leading in as many as 177 assembly segments seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Combine this with the meticulous caste combination built by Sh. Nitish Kumar spanning Maha Dalits and Pasmanda Muslims, and you know if Nitish Kumar were to himself be the direct object of the contest where the entire contest could be headed. That explains why the RJD is being so accommodative of the LJP in Bihar. A party with an indirectly inferred vote share of about six percent has been awarded 75 assembly seats as a part of the seat sharing formula and the RJD is contesting 168.
Nitish Kumars Samata Party has come a long way from being a party with less than seven percent vote share in the 1995 assembly elections to a party with more than twenty five percent vote share in the Lok Sabha polls. Indeed it is the hour of Nitish Kumar. However all may not be rosy. The margins of the Lok Sabha elections have a caveat to offer as well. The average lead margin in the assembly segments in the Lok Sabha elections was about 13,500 votes. This does not indicate very strong victories and implies that Laloo Pd. Yadav and co. could play catch up in several seats if they could rightly strategise That explains why the CM is going out of his way to accommodate all possible caste groupings in spite of having a strong message on development.
The results to the current election could be anywhere in a spectrum that ranges from a simple majority in the house for the JD(U) BJP combine to a sweeping majority in the house for the JD(U) BJP combine. The outcome of this election would also decide the future of the NDA in the state. Whether Nitish Kumar can muster the confidence to go it alone after the elections will be determined by the numbers. That explains Nitish Kumar frequently wooing Muslim leaders from the LJP as well as the RJD into his fold.  
The outcome of the election will have long term implications for the polity of the entire nation as it well seek to emphasize the importance of blending personality politics with the right quantum of branding as an unbeatable election formula.
Keep watching this space for some loud thinking as we draw closer to the elections.

(Writer Jai Mrug is a psephologist with twelve years of experience in the field of electronic and print media, he has been an avid tracker of elections in India and has worked with leading Television houses in the country and has analysed elections for a number of leading newspapers in the country.)

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